Fulham 0-0 Everton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fulham at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fulham vs Everton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 22 as Fulham welcome Everton to Craven Cottage. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 30 January 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Fulham have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fulham's home record at Craven Cottage: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Fulham are significantly better at Craven Cottage than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Everton stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Everton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Fulham at 1.20 PPG versus Everton's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Fulham have won 2, Everton 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2023, ended 1–0 with Fulham winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Fulham trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Everton trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 52% versus Everton 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 63% | Everton 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.88 xG and Everton 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 1.175 / defence 0.943 | Everton attack 0.929 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 1.685 / away 1.354. Data: 59 Fulham games / 59 Everton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fulham 53% | Draw 23% | Everton 24%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 1.89 | Draw 4.35 | Everton 4.17. Fulham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fulham at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fulham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.07 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. This conflicts with form data: Fulham 30% | Everton 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Everton | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Tuesday 30 Jan 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 53% | Draw 23% | Everton 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 59% | xG Fulham 1.88 / Everton 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 1.175 / def 0.943 | Everton attack 0.929 / def 0.950 | league avg home 1.685 / away 1.354 • Poisson stance: Fulham (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Everton xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fulham vs Everton kick off?
Fulham vs Everton kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 30 January 2024 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Everton?
Fulham 0 - 0 Everton.
Where is Fulham vs Everton being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Everton part of?
Fulham vs Everton is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Everton?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 53% chance of winning, Everton a 24% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Everton?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Fulham and Everton will score (BTTS).
Will Fulham vs Everton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Everton?
Record (3 meetings): Fulham 2W | Draws 1 | Everton 0W.
What form are Fulham and Everton in?
Fulham (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Everton (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Fulham's attack at 1.18x the league average against Everton's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.88 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Everton's attack versus Fulham's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
53%
1.87
23%
4.36
24%
4.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Fulham xG
Total xG
3.07
1.19
Everton xG
1.87
53%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
4.22
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
15%
6.56
Win to Nil
16%
6.13
4%
27.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 10.4 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Everton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Fulham and Everton expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Fulham and 1.19 for Everton, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Everton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 59 outings, Fulham have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 22W 10D 27L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Fulham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Everton's form line: 16W 15D 28L from 59 games, 1.07 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-D. The sample for Everton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fulham on 1.29 PPG, Everton on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Fulham have posted 1.62 PPG from 29 outings (14W 5D 10L).
On the road, Everton have gone 7W 10D 12L from 29 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fulham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fulham are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Everton are on 0.98 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Blended
Everton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fulham and Everton in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 22W 10D 27L in their last 59 games (1.29 PPG), while Everton have gone 16W 15D 28L in their last 59 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Everton away?
Fulham's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 1.62 PPG; Everton away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fulham and Everton runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Everton have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Fulham's record when hosting Everton specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Fulham
3
Draws
3
Everton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Everton?
From 8 meetings on record, Fulham have won 2, Everton have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Everton last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Fulham 1-2 Everton.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Everton?
Everton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 55%, Everton 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Fulham) and 48% (Everton). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fulham have failed to score in 28% of games; Everton in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Everton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fulham play Everton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Fulham's recent matches and 48% of Everton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fulham vs Everton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Fulham's matches and 48% of Everton's.
Stalemate at Fulham's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 22, as Fulham and Everton drew 0-0 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.88 xG and Everton 1.19 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Fulham fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Everton landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 1.18 / defence 0.94 against Everton attack 0.93 / defence 0.95, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 53% | Draw 23% | Everton 24%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 63%, Everton 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Everton's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fulham 1.29 PPG, Everton 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fulham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.72 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line. Everton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.