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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Crystal Palace edge out Fulham 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Crystal Palace beat Fulham 1-2 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.23 xG and Crystal Palace 1.44 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 1.15 / defence 1.14 against Crystal Palace attack 0.99 / defence 0.69, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fulham 32% | Draw 26% | Crystal Palace 42%, with Crystal Palace to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 56%, Crystal Palace 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fulham's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Crystal Palace's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fulham 1.37 PPG, Crystal Palace 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crystal Palace win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights