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Shock result as Fulham defy the odds to beat Chelsea 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fulham beat Chelsea 2-1 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.34 xG and Chelsea 1.51 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 1.11 / defence 1.09 against Chelsea attack 1.10 / defence 0.81, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fulham 32% | Draw 29% | Chelsea 40%, with Chelsea to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Fulham win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 55%, Chelsea 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fulham's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Chelsea's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fulham 1.41 PPG, Chelsea 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fulham win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights