Fulham vs Brighton – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Fulham's attack at 0.90x the league average against Brighton's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Brighton's attack versus Fulham's defence, projects 2.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Brighton Win
23%
4.44
24%
4.13
53%
1.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
0 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Fulham xG
Total xG
3.34
2.04
Brighton xG
4.44
23%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
1.88
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
13%
7.71
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
3%
34.20
15%
6.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 7.3 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Brighton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Fulham and Brighton expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Fulham and 2.04 for Brighton, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Brighton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.