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Fulham cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Brentford.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fulham beat Brentford 3-1 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 5, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.31 xG and Brentford 1.10 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Fulham beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 0.86 / defence 0.95 against Brentford attack 0.98 / defence 1.10, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fulham 41% | Draw 27% | Brentford 31%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 52%, Brentford 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fulham's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Brentford's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fulham 1.40 PPG, Brentford 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fulham win broke the near-deadlock. Fulham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm. Brentford (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights