Fulham vs Bournemouth – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fulham at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fulham vs Bournemouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Bournemouth travel to Craven Cottage to take on Fulham. The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 November 2026, 14:05 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Fulham have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D L W W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fulham's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Craven Cottage this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Bournemouth — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bournemouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bournemouth's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Fulham 1.20 PPG, Bournemouth 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
Bournemouth have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 10 encounters against Fulham's 1 victories.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2026, ended 0–1 with Bournemouth winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bournemouth have won 5 of 10 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Fulham trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Bournemouth trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 53% versus Bournemouth 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 47% | Bournemouth 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.59 xG and Bournemouth 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 0.972 / defence 1.119 | Bournemouth attack 1.179 / defence 1.147. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.170. Data: 47 Fulham games / 47 Bournemouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fulham 39% | Draw 24% | Bournemouth 37%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 2.56 | Draw 4.17 | Bournemouth 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fulham as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fulham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.14 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Fulham 50% | Bournemouth 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Bournemouth | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Nov 2026, 14:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 39% | Draw 24% | Bournemouth 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Fulham 1.59 / Bournemouth 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 0.972 / def 1.119 | Bournemouth attack 1.179 / def 1.147 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Fulham (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Bournemouth xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fulham vs Bournemouth kick off?
Fulham vs Bournemouth is scheduled to kick off at 14:05 on Sunday 29 November 2026 at Craven Cottage.
Where is Fulham vs Bournemouth being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Bournemouth part of?
Fulham vs Bournemouth is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Bournemouth?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 39% chance of winning, Bournemouth a 37% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Bournemouth?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Fulham and Bournemouth will score (BTTS).
Will Fulham vs Bournemouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Bournemouth?
Record (10 meetings): Fulham 1W | Draws 4 | Bournemouth 5W.
What form are Fulham and Bournemouth in?
Fulham (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. Bournemouth (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Fulham's attack rating (0.97) and Bournemouth's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bournemouth's attack versus Fulham's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
39%
2.55
24%
4.22
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Fulham xG
Total xG
3.14
1.54
Bournemouth xG
2.55
39%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
21%
4.68
20%
4.92
Win to Nil
8%
11.92
8%
13.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.7 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.7 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.5 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Bournemouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Fulham and Bournemouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Fulham and 1.54 for Bournemouth, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Bournemouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 47 outings, Fulham have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 17W 10D 20L record — D-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Fulham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bournemouth's form line: 16W 21D 10L from 47 games, 1.47 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-W. The sample for Bournemouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fulham on 1.30 PPG, Bournemouth on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Fulham have posted 1.70 PPG from 23 outings (12W 3D 8L).
On the road, Bournemouth have gone 7W 9D 7L from 23 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Fulham are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Bournemouth are on 1.53 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bournemouth in 64%.
Last 47 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Blended
Bournemouth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fulham and Bournemouth in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 17W 10D 20L in their last 47 games (1.30 PPG), while Bournemouth have gone 16W 21D 10L in their last 47 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Bournemouth away?
Fulham's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 1.70 PPG; Bournemouth away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Championship, Premier League all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Bournemouth have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Dec 2023, when Bournemouth won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fulham's record when hosting Bournemouth specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Fulham
4
Draws
5
Bournemouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Bournemouth?
From 10 meetings on record, Fulham have won 1, Bournemouth have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Bournemouth last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Fulham 0-1 Bournemouth.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Bournemouth?
Bournemouth have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Bournemouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 56%, Bournemouth 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for Fulham and 70% for Bournemouth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fulham keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Bournemouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fulham play Bournemouth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Fulham's games and 70% of Bournemouth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fulham vs Bournemouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Fulham's matches and 70% of Bournemouth's.
Do Fulham and Bournemouth tend to score early?
Fulham have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Bournemouth in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.