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Shock result as Bournemouth defy the odds to beat Fulham 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bournemouth beat Fulham 0-1 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 36, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.41 xG and Bournemouth 1.28 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Fulham fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 1.01 / defence 0.93 against Bournemouth attack 1.10 / defence 0.96, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fulham 39% | Draw 28% | Bournemouth 33%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Bournemouth win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 56%, Bournemouth 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fulham's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Bournemouth's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fulham 1.40 PPG, Bournemouth 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bournemouth win broke the near-deadlock. Fulham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward. Bournemouth (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights