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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Arsenal edge out Fulham 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Arsenal beat Fulham 0-1 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 8, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.08 xG and Arsenal 1.19 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Fulham fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 0.97 / defence 0.96 against Arsenal attack 1.07 / defence 0.75, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fulham 32% | Draw 30% | Arsenal 38%, with Arsenal to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 56%, Arsenal 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fulham's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.

Arsenal's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Arsenal arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.38. That form edge translated into the three points. Fulham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward. Arsenal (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights