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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Everton and Wolves share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Hill Dickinson Stadium, Regular Season - 21, as Everton and Wolves drew 1-1 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.51 xG and Wolves 1.07 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.95 / defence 1.22 against Wolves attack 0.70 / defence 1.06, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Everton 45% | Draw 30% | Wolves 25%, with Everton to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 36%, Wolves 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Everton's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Wolves's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Everton arrived the stronger side — 1.31 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Wolves (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights