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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Everton and West Ham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Hill Dickinson Stadium, Regular Season - 6, as Everton and West Ham drew 1-1 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.33 xG and West Ham 1.00 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.93 / defence 0.76 against West Ham attack 1.08 / defence 0.99, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Everton 44% | Draw 28% | West Ham 28%, with Everton to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 37%, West Ham 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Everton's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

West Ham's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Everton 1.28 PPG, West Ham 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights