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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Everton and West Ham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Everton and West Ham finished level at 1-1 at Goodison Park, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.55 xG and West Ham 1.07 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 1.07 / defence 0.86 against West Ham attack 0.84 / defence 1.00, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Everton 48% | Draw 25% | West Ham 26%, with Everton to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 42%, West Ham 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Everton's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

West Ham's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Everton 1.23 PPG, West Ham 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. West Ham (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.06 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights