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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Everton defy the odds to beat Tottenham 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Everton beat Tottenham 3-2 at Goodison Park, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 0.91 xG and Tottenham 1.20 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Everton beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Tottenham outscored their 1.20 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.72 / defence 0.72 against Tottenham attack 1.09 / defence 0.88, drawn from 58/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Everton 25% | Draw 34% | Tottenham 40%, with Tottenham to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a Everton win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 40%, Tottenham 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Everton's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Tottenham's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Tottenham arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with Everton winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Everton (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Tottenham (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights