Everton vs Newcastle – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton vs Newcastle fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Newcastle travel to Hill Dickinson Stadium to take on Everton. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 February 2027, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Everton stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Everton have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Hill Dickinson Stadium, Everton have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Newcastle — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Newcastle have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Newcastle have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Everton) versus 1.50 (Newcastle). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Everton, 4 for Newcastle and 2 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2026, ended 3–2 with Everton winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Everton trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Newcastle trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 49% versus Newcastle 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 42% | Newcastle 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.80 xG and Newcastle 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 1.100 / defence 1.011 | Newcastle attack 0.984 / defence 1.141. League average goals — home 1.434 / away 1.283. Data: 42 Everton games / 42 Newcastle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton 48% | Draw 26% | Newcastle 26%. Fair-value odds: Everton 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Newcastle 3.85. Everton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Everton as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Everton 50% | Newcastle 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs Newcastle | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Hill Dickinson Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 48% | Draw 26% | Newcastle 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Everton 1.80 / Newcastle 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 1.100 / def 1.011 | Newcastle attack 0.984 / def 1.141 | league avg home 1.434 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: Everton (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Everton xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Newcastle xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton vs Newcastle kick off?
Everton vs Newcastle is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at Hill Dickinson Stadium.
Where is Everton vs Newcastle being played?
The match is being played at Hill Dickinson Stadium.
What competition is Everton vs Newcastle part of?
Everton vs Newcastle is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs Newcastle?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 48% chance of winning, Newcastle a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Everton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Newcastle?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Everton and Newcastle will score (BTTS).
Will Everton vs Newcastle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Newcastle?
Record (10 meetings): Everton 4W | Draws 2 | Newcastle 4W.
What form are Everton and Newcastle in?
Everton (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-D-W. Newcastle (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Everton's attack rating (1.10) and Newcastle's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Newcastle's attack versus Everton's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton Win
48%
2.07
26%
3.85
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Everton xG
Total xG
3.08
1.28
Newcastle xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
17%
6.04
Win to Nil
13%
7.42
4%
23.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.6 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs Newcastle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Everton and Newcastle expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Everton and 1.28 for Newcastle, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs Newcastle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 43 outings, Everton have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 15W 13D 15L record — W-D-D-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Everton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Newcastle's form line: 16W 9D 18L from 43 games, 1.33 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Newcastle, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Everton on 1.35 PPG, Newcastle on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Everton have posted 1.29 PPG from 21 outings (7W 6D 8L).
On the road, Newcastle have gone 5W 5D 11L from 21 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Everton are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Newcastle are on 1.44 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Newcastle in 67%.
Last 43 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Early Season
Newcastle
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton and Newcastle in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 15W 13D 15L in their last 43 games (1.35 PPG), while Newcastle have gone 16W 9D 18L in their last 43 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or Newcastle away?
Everton's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.29 PPG; Newcastle away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Everton or Newcastle been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Newcastle in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Everton and Newcastle runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Apr 2023, when Newcastle won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Everton's record when hosting Newcastle specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Everton
2
Draws
4
Newcastle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Newcastle?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton have won 4, Newcastle have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Everton and Newcastle last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Newcastle 2-3 Everton.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Everton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Newcastle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 52%, Newcastle 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Everton) and 48% (Newcastle).
On the defensive side: Everton keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Newcastle in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / Newcastle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton play Newcastle?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Everton's recent matches and 52% of Newcastle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton vs Newcastle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Everton's recent games and 48% of Newcastle's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton and Newcastle tend to score early?
Everton have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Newcastle in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.