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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Everton and Manchester United share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Goodison Park, Regular Season - 26, as Everton and Manchester United drew 2-2 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.27 xG and Manchester United 0.84 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Manchester United outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 1.01 / defence 0.78 against Manchester United attack 0.71 / defence 0.83, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Everton 46% | Draw 31% | Manchester United 24%, with Everton to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 43%, Manchester United 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Everton's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Manchester United's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Everton 1.24 PPG, Manchester United 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Everton (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Manchester United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights