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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Everton and Manchester City share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Everton and Manchester City finished level at 3-3 at Hill Dickinson Stadium, Regular Season - 35, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 0.98 xG and Manchester City 1.38 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Everton beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Manchester City outscored their 1.38 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.92 / defence 0.99 against Manchester City attack 1.11 / defence 0.74, drawn from 72/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Everton 25% | Draw 30% | Manchester City 45%, with Manchester City to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 38%, Manchester City 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Everton's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Manchester City's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Manchester City arrived the stronger side — 1.99 PPG against 1.34. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Everton (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Manchester City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights