Everton 1-1 Leicester – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton vs Leicester fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Leicester travel to Goodison Park to take on Everton. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 20 April 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Everton have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Everton at Goodison Park this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Leicester stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Leicester's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Everton 0.90 PPG, Leicester 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Everton in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Leicester in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 50% versus Leicester 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 57% | Leicester 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.28 xG and Leicester 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.830 / defence 0.976 | Leicester attack 0.800 / defence 1.393. League average goals — home 1.107 / away 1.346. Leicester bring a strong defensive rating of 1.393 — this is suppressing Everton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Everton games / 30 Leicester games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton 42% | Draw 28% | Leicester 30%. Fair-value odds: Everton 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Leicester 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Everton at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Everton 30% | Leicester 70%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs Leicester | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Goodison Park • Kick-off: Wednesday 20 Apr 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 42% | Draw 28% | Leicester 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Everton 1.28 / Leicester 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 0.830 / def 0.976 | Leicester attack 0.800 / def 1.393 | league avg home 1.107 / away 1.346 • Poisson stance: Everton (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Everton xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Leicester xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton vs Leicester kick off?
Everton vs Leicester kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 20 April 2022 at Goodison Park.
What was the final score in Everton vs Leicester?
Everton 1 - 1 Leicester.
Where is Everton vs Leicester being played?
The match is being played at Goodison Park.
What competition is Everton vs Leicester part of?
Everton vs Leicester is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs Leicester?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 42% chance of winning, Leicester a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Everton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Leicester?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Everton and Leicester will score (BTTS).
Will Everton vs Leicester have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Leicester?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Everton and Leicester in?
Everton (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Leicester (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Everton's attack rating (0.83) and Leicester's defence rating (1.39), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Leicester's attack versus Everton's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton Win
42%
2.40
28%
3.58
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Everton xG
Total xG
2.33
1.05
Leicester xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
15%
6.86
8%
11.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 10.2 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.1 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs Leicester?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Everton and Leicester expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Everton and 1.05 for Leicester, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs Leicester?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Everton come into this having played 30 games, going 8W 4D 18L for 0.93 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, Leicester sit at 1.33 PPG from 30 outings (11W 7D 12L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-L across their last five.
Leicester carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of Everton — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Everton's home form reads 7W 1D 7L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.93 PPG overall — Everton are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Leicester have taken 0.87 points per game from 15 outings (3W 4D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Leicester's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Everton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Everton are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Leicester are on 1.53 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Leicester in 67%.
Last 30 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Current Season
Leicester
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton and Leicester in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 8W 4D 18L in their last 30 games (0.93 PPG), while Leicester have gone 11W 7D 12L in their last 30 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or Leicester away?
Everton's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.47 PPG; Leicester away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Everton and Leicester runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Feb 2025, when Everton won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Everton's record when hosting Leicester specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Everton
3
Draws
1
Leicester
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Leicester?
From 6 meetings on record, Everton have won 2, Leicester have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Everton and Leicester last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when Everton 4-0 Leicester.
Who has won more matches between Everton and Leicester?
Everton have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 40%, Leicester 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Everton) and 67% (Leicester). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Everton keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Everton have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / Leicester away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton play Leicester?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Everton's games and 80% of Leicester's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Everton vs Leicester usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Everton's matches and 67% of Leicester's.
Everton and Leicester share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Goodison Park, Regular Season - 18, as Everton and Leicester drew 1-1 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.28 xG and Leicester 1.05 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.83 / defence 0.98 against Leicester attack 0.80 / defence 1.39, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton 42% | Draw 28% | Leicester 30%, with Everton to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 57%, Leicester 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Leicester's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Leicester arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Leicester (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.