Everton 1-1 Leeds – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton vs Leeds fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Leeds make the trip to Hill Dickinson Stadium to face Everton in Premier League, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Monday 26 January 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Everton (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Everton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton at Hill Dickinson Stadium this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Leeds's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D D D L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Leeds, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Leeds's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Everton lead 2W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2025, ended 0–1 with Leeds winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Everton half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Leeds half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 40% versus Leeds 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 35% | Leeds 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.79 xG and Leeds 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.946 / defence 1.229 | Leeds attack 0.905 / defence 1.284. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 1.237. Leeds bring a strong defensive rating of 1.284 — this is suppressing Everton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 60 Everton games / 22 Leeds games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton 45% | Draw 28% | Leeds 27%. Fair-value odds: Everton 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Leeds 3.70. Everton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Everton at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Everton if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Everton 50% | Leeds 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs Leeds | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Hill Dickinson Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 26 Jan 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 45% | Draw 28% | Leeds 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 65% | xG Everton 1.79 / Leeds 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 0.946 / def 1.229 | Leeds attack 0.905 / def 1.284 | league avg home 1.474 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Everton (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Everton xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Leeds xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton vs Leeds kick off?
Everton vs Leeds kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 26 January 2026 at Hill Dickinson Stadium.
What was the final score in Everton vs Leeds?
Everton 1 - 1 Leeds.
Where is Everton vs Leeds being played?
The match is being played at Hill Dickinson Stadium.
What competition is Everton vs Leeds part of?
Everton vs Leeds is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs Leeds?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 45% chance of winning, Leeds a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Everton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Leeds?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Everton and Leeds will score (BTTS).
Will Everton vs Leeds have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Leeds?
Record (5 meetings): Everton 2W | Draws 2 | Leeds 1W.
What form are Everton and Leeds in?
Everton (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. Leeds (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Everton's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Leeds's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.79. Flip it around — Leeds's attack (0.91x) against Everton's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 60/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton Win
45%
2.24
28%
3.53
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Everton xG
Total xG
3.17
1.38
Leeds xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.85
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
17%
6.00
Win to Nil
11%
8.86
4%
22.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 10.4 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs Leeds?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Everton and Leeds expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Everton and 1.38 for Leeds, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs Leeds?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Everton come into this having played 60 games, going 20W 20D 20L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-W. The sample for Everton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Leeds sit at 1.83 PPG from 60 outings (31W 17D 12L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Leeds is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Leeds carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Everton — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Everton's home form reads 9W 12D 9L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Leeds have taken 1.33 points per game from 30 outings (10W 10D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.83 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Leeds's season.
Attack vs Defence
Everton are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Leeds are on 1.87 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Everton have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Leeds in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Blended
Leeds
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton and Leeds in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 20W 20D 20L in their last 60 games (1.33 PPG), while Leeds have gone 31W 17D 12L in their last 60 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or Leeds away?
Leeds's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.30 PPG; Leeds away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Everton or Leeds been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Leeds in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 26 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Everton won 3-0 on 12 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Everton have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Leeds — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Everton
3
Draws
1
Leeds
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Leeds?
From 6 meetings on record, Everton have won 2, Leeds have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Everton and Leeds last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2026, when Everton 1-1 Leeds.
Who has won more matches between Everton and Leeds?
Everton have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Everton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Leeds are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 47%, Leeds 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Everton) and 43% (Leeds).
On the defensive side: Everton keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Everton have failed to score in 33% of games; Leeds in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / Leeds away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton play Leeds?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Everton's recent matches and 47% of Leeds's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton vs Leeds usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Everton's recent games and 43% of Leeds's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton and Leeds tend to score early?
Everton have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Leeds in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Everton and Leeds share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Hill Dickinson Stadium, Regular Season - 23, as Everton and Leeds drew 1-1 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.79 xG and Leeds 1.38 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.95 / defence 1.23 against Leeds attack 0.91 / defence 1.28, drawn from 60/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton 45% | Draw 28% | Leeds 27%, with Everton to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 35%, Leeds 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Leeds's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Leeds arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.