🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Everton and Ipswich share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Everton and Ipswich finished level at 2-2 at Goodison Park, Regular Season - 35, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.64 xG and Ipswich 1.17 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Ipswich outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.93 / defence 0.93 against Ipswich attack 0.90 / defence 1.20, drawn from 72/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Everton 48% | Draw 24% | Ipswich 27%, with Everton to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 39%, Ipswich 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Everton's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Ipswich's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Everton 1.19 PPG, Ipswich 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Everton (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights