Everton vs Hull City – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton vs Hull City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 35 sees Hull City travel to Hill Dickinson Stadium to take on Everton. The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 May 2027, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Everton stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Everton have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Everton's home record at Hill Dickinson Stadium: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Premier League games this season, Hull City have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Hull City have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Hull City have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Hull City's 1.60 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Everton's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Everton, 0 for Hull City and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Oct 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Everton in-play and half-time data (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Hull City in-play and half-time data (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 49% versus Hull City 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 42% | Hull City 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.22 xG and Hull City 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.835 / defence 0.983 | Hull City attack 0.739 / defence 0.969. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.269. Data: 45 Everton games / 7 Hull City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton 43% | Draw 30% | Hull City 27%. Fair-value odds: Everton 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Hull City 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Everton at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hull City (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Everton 40% | Hull City 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs Hull City | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Hill Dickinson Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 8 May 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 43% | Draw 30% | Hull City 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Everton 1.22 / Hull City 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 0.835 / def 0.983 | Hull City attack 0.739 / def 0.969 | league avg home 1.513 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Everton (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Everton xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Hull City xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton vs Hull City kick off?
Everton vs Hull City is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 8 May 2027 at Hill Dickinson Stadium.
Where is Everton vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at Hill Dickinson Stadium.
What competition is Everton vs Hull City part of?
Everton vs Hull City is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 43% chance of winning, Hull City a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Everton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Everton and Hull City will score (BTTS).
Will Everton vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Hull City?
Record (1 meetings): Everton 0W | Draws 1 | Hull City 0W.
What form are Everton and Hull City in?
Everton (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. Hull City (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Everton's attack rating (0.83) and Hull City's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hull City's attack versus Everton's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 1-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton Win
43%
2.35
30%
3.33
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Everton xG
Total xG
2.15
0.92
Hull City xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
17%
5.90
8%
12.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 10.8 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.2 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Everton and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Everton and 0.92 for Hull City, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Everton's recent record stands at 15W 14D 16L from 45 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with D-D-W-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Everton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hull City, meanwhile, have gone 20W 11D 14L across 45 games — 1.58 PPG, with D-D-L-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Hull City, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Everton on 1.31 PPG, Hull City on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Everton have managed 8W 6D 9L from 23 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hull City's away record stands at 11W 4D 8L across 23 trips, a 1.61 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Everton are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 1.38 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Early Season
Hull City
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton and Hull City in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 15W 14D 16L in their last 45 games (1.31 PPG), while Hull City have gone 20W 11D 14L in their last 45 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or Hull City away?
Hull City's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.30 PPG; Hull City away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Everton or Hull City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Hull City in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 11 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Everton
1
Draws
0
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Hull City?
From 1 meetings on record, Everton have won 0, Hull City have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Everton and Hull City last play each other?
They last met on 11 October 2026, when Hull City 2-2 Everton.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Everton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 48%, Hull City 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Everton) and 61% (Hull City).
On the defensive side: Everton keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Hull City in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton play Hull City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Everton's recent matches and 56% of Hull City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton vs Hull City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Everton's recent games and 61% of Hull City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton and Hull City tend to score early?
Everton have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Hull City in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.