Everton 2-0 Crystal Palace – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Everton at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Everton vs Crystal Palace encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Everton host Crystal Palace at Hill Dickinson Stadium in Premier League, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 August 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Everton — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Everton haven't played a Premier League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Hill Dickinson Stadium, Everton have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Crystal Palace stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Crystal Palace haven't played a Premier League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Crystal Palace away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Everton at 0.90 PPG versus Crystal Palace's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Everton register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Crystal Palace in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Everton hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 6 wins from 9 previous encounters compared to 0 for Crystal Palace, with 3 draws in between.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Everton and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.1 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Everton trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Crystal Palace trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 50% versus Crystal Palace 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 45% | Crystal Palace 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.68 xG and Crystal Palace 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 1.000 / defence 1.111 | Crystal Palace attack 0.971 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.184. Data: 38 Everton games / 38 Crystal Palace games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Everton 46% | Draw 26% | Crystal Palace 28%. Fair-value odds: Everton 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Crystal Palace 3.57. Everton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Everton are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Everton 70% | Crystal Palace 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs Crystal Palace | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Hill Dickinson Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 46% | Draw 26% | Crystal Palace 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Everton 1.68 / Crystal Palace 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 1.000 / def 1.111 | Crystal Palace attack 0.971 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Everton (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Everton xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Crystal Palace xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton vs Crystal Palace kick off?
Everton vs Crystal Palace kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 22 August 2026 at Hill Dickinson Stadium.
What was the final score in Everton vs Crystal Palace?
Everton 2 - 0 Crystal Palace.
Where is Everton vs Crystal Palace being played?
The match is being played at Hill Dickinson Stadium.
What competition is Everton vs Crystal Palace part of?
Everton vs Crystal Palace is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs Crystal Palace?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 46% chance of winning, Crystal Palace a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Everton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Crystal Palace?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Everton and Crystal Palace will score (BTTS).
Will Everton vs Crystal Palace have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Crystal Palace?
Record (9 meetings): Everton 6W | Draws 3 | Crystal Palace 0W.
What form are Everton and Crystal Palace in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Everton (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Everton's attack at 1.00x the league average against Crystal Palace's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Crystal Palace's attack versus Everton's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton Win
46%
2.20
26%
3.78
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Everton xG
Total xG
2.95
1.28
Crystal Palace xG
2.20
46%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
19%
5.34
Win to Nil
13%
7.88
5%
19.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.2 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs Crystal Palace?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Everton and Crystal Palace expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Everton and 1.28 for Crystal Palace, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs Crystal Palace?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 38 outings, Everton have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 13W 10D 15L record — L-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. Everton haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Crystal Palace's form line: 11W 12D 15L from 38 games, 1.18 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-L. Crystal Palace haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Everton on 1.29 PPG, Crystal Palace on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Everton have posted 1.21 PPG from 19 outings (6W 5D 8L).
On the road, Crystal Palace have gone 7W 3D 9L from 19 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Everton are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Crystal Palace are on 1.08 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Pre-Season
Crystal Palace
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton and Crystal Palace in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 13W 10D 15L in their last 38 games (1.29 PPG), while Crystal Palace have gone 11W 12D 15L in their last 38 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or Crystal Palace away?
Crystal Palace's away record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.21 PPG; Crystal Palace away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Everton or Crystal Palace been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Crystal Palace in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Oct 2022, when Everton won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Everton's record when hosting Crystal Palace specifically: 5W 1D 0L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Everton
3
Draws
0
Crystal Palace
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Crystal Palace?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton have won 7, Crystal Palace have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Everton and Crystal Palace last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Everton 2-0 Crystal Palace.
Who has won more matches between Everton and Crystal Palace?
Everton have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Everton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Crystal Palace are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 53%, Crystal Palace 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Everton) and 63% (Crystal Palace). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Everton keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Crystal Palace in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / Crystal Palace away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton play Crystal Palace?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Everton's recent matches and 53% of Crystal Palace's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton vs Crystal Palace usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Everton's matches and 63% of Crystal Palace's.
Do Everton and Crystal Palace tend to score early?
Everton have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Crystal Palace in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Everton cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Crystal Palace.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton beat Crystal Palace 2-0 at Hill Dickinson Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.68 xG and Crystal Palace 1.28 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Crystal Palace landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 1.00 / defence 1.11 against Crystal Palace attack 0.97 / defence 1.09, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton 46% | Draw 26% | Crystal Palace 28%, with Everton to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 45%, Crystal Palace 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Crystal Palace's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton 1.29 PPG, Crystal Palace 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton win broke the near-deadlock. Everton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Crystal Palace (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.