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Poisson rates Everton at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Everton vs Crystal Palace encounter.

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Match Analysis

Everton host Crystal Palace at Hill Dickinson Stadium in Premier League, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 August 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Everton — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Everton haven't played a Premier League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

At home at Hill Dickinson Stadium, Everton have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Crystal Palace stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Crystal Palace haven't played a Premier League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Crystal Palace away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Everton at 0.90 PPG versus Crystal Palace's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Everton register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Crystal Palace in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

Everton hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 6 wins from 10 previous encounters compared to 0 for Crystal Palace, with 4 draws in between.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.

The historical record gives Everton a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Table Standings

In the Premier League table, Crystal Palace sit 8th on 0 points, 1 place and 0 points ahead of Everton in 9th.

On home turf, Everton's Premier League record reads 0W 0D 0L this term. Away from home, Crystal Palace have posted 0W 0D 0L in Premier League this season.

In-Play Data

Everton trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).

Crystal Palace trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 50% versus Crystal Palace 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 45% | Crystal Palace 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.70 xG and Crystal Palace 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.997 / defence 1.136 | Crystal Palace attack 0.957 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.531 / away 1.214. Data: 38 Everton games / 38 Crystal Palace games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Everton 45% | Draw 26% | Crystal Palace 29%. Fair-value odds: Everton 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Crystal Palace 3.45. Everton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Everton are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Everton 70% | Crystal Palace 60% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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