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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Everton cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Brighton.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Everton beat Brighton 2-0 at Hill Dickinson Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.58 xG and Brighton 1.42 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Brighton landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 1.01 / defence 0.98 against Brighton attack 1.18 / defence 1.05, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Everton 41% | Draw 24% | Brighton 34%, with Everton to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 36%, Brighton 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Everton's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Brighton's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Everton 1.23 PPG, Brighton 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton win broke the near-deadlock. Everton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Brighton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights