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Stalemate at Everton's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Everton and Aston Villa finished level at 0-0 at Hill Dickinson Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.43 xG and Aston Villa 0.90 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Everton fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Aston Villa landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 1.05 / defence 0.85 against Aston Villa attack 0.86 / defence 0.93, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Everton 49% | Draw 27% | Aston Villa 24%, with Everton to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 37%, Aston Villa 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Everton's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Aston Villa's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Everton 1.32 PPG, Aston Villa 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Everton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Aston Villa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights