🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Aston Villa defy the odds to beat Everton 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Aston Villa beat Everton 0-1 at Goodison Park, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.55 xG and Aston Villa 0.88 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Everton fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.81 / defence 0.72 against Aston Villa attack 0.81 / defence 1.30, drawn from 57/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Everton 51% | Draw 31% | Aston Villa 19%, with Everton to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Aston Villa win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 40%, Aston Villa 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Everton's trading profile (57 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Aston Villa's trading profile (57 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Aston Villa arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Everton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward. Aston Villa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights