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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Crystal Palace cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Wolves.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Crystal Palace beat Wolves 4-2 at Selhurst Park, Regular Season - 37, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Crystal Palace 1.29 xG and Wolves 1.08 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Crystal Palace beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Wolves outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crystal Palace attack 0.91 / defence 0.88 against Wolves attack 0.90 / defence 0.99, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Crystal Palace 41% | Draw 28% | Wolves 31%, with Crystal Palace to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crystal Palace 50%, Wolves 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Crystal Palace's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Wolves's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Crystal Palace 1.32 PPG, Wolves 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crystal Palace win broke the near-deadlock. Crystal Palace (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.54 average — above their attacking norm. Wolves (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights