Crystal Palace 3-0 Tottenham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Crystal Palace take on Tottenham.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 4 as Crystal Palace welcome Tottenham to Selhurst Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 September 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Crystal Palace stand at 0W 2D 1L from 3 Premier League matches — 0.67 PPG. Last five: L D D. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 1.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Crystal Palace have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Premier League games this season, Tottenham have recorded 3W 0D 0L from 3 outings — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 3 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Tottenham have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. Tottenham's 3.00 PPG return is 2.33 points per game ahead of Crystal Palace's 0.67 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Crystal Palace trading profile (3 games): BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Tottenham trading profile (3 games): BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they keep a clean sheet 100% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Crystal Palace 33% | Tottenham 0%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Crystal Palace 67% | Tottenham 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crystal Palace 1.01 xG and Tottenham 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crystal Palace attack 0.776 / defence 1.018 | Tottenham attack 0.845 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.283 / away 1.071. Crystal Palace's attack strength of 0.776 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 3 Crystal Palace games / 3 Tottenham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crystal Palace 34% | Draw 36% | Tottenham 30%. Fair-value odds: Crystal Palace 2.94 | Draw 2.78 | Tottenham 3.33. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.93 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Crystal Palace 33% | Tottenham 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crystal Palace vs Tottenham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Selhurst Park • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crystal Palace 34% | Draw 36% | Tottenham 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 40% | xG Crystal Palace 1.01 / Tottenham 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Crystal Palace attack 0.776 / def 1.018 | Tottenham attack 0.845 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.283 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Crystal Palace xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Tottenham xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crystal Palace vs Tottenham kick off?
Crystal Palace vs Tottenham kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at Selhurst Park.
What was the final score in Crystal Palace vs Tottenham?
Crystal Palace 3 - 0 Tottenham.
Where is Crystal Palace vs Tottenham being played?
The match is being played at Selhurst Park.
What competition is Crystal Palace vs Tottenham part of?
Crystal Palace vs Tottenham is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Crystal Palace vs Tottenham?
Our statistical model gives Crystal Palace a 34% chance of winning, Tottenham a 30% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Crystal Palace vs Tottenham?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Crystal Palace and Tottenham will score (BTTS).
Will Crystal Palace vs Tottenham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crystal Palace and Tottenham?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Crystal Palace and Tottenham in?
Crystal Palace (all comps): 0W-2D-1L in 3 | 0.67 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-D-D. Tottenham (all comps): 3W-0D-0L in 3 | 3.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Crystal Palace's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Tottenham's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. The same calculation in reverse, Tottenham's attack versus Crystal Palace's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.90
36%
2.79
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Crystal Palace xG
Total xG
1.93
0.92
Tottenham xG
2.90
34%
Home win
2.79
36%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
14%
7.29
11%
9.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.5 | 13.4 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.5 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crystal Palace vs Tottenham?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Crystal Palace and Tottenham expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Crystal Palace and 0.92 for Tottenham, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Crystal Palace vs Tottenham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Crystal Palace's recent record stands at 0W 2D 1L from 3 games, a 0.67 PPG return, with L-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Crystal Palace, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Tottenham, meanwhile, have gone 3W 0D 0L across 3 games — 3.00 PPG, with W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Tottenham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Tottenham by 2.33 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Crystal Palace heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Crystal Palace are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Tottenham are on 1.00 scored and 0.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tottenham in 0%.
Defensively: Tottenham in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crystal Palace
Early Season
Tottenham
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crystal Palace and Tottenham in coming into this match?
Crystal Palace have gone 0W 2D 1L in their last 3 games (0.67 PPG), while Tottenham have gone 3W 0D 0L in their last 3 (3.00 PPG).
Have Crystal Palace or Tottenham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crystal Palace have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Tottenham in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 5 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Jan 2023, when Tottenham won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Crystal Palace's record when hosting Tottenham specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Crystal Palace
0
Draws
6
Tottenham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crystal Palace and Tottenham?
From 10 meetings on record, Crystal Palace have won 4, Tottenham have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Crystal Palace and Tottenham last play each other?
They last met on 5 March 2026, when Tottenham 1-3 Crystal Palace.
Who has won more matches between Crystal Palace and Tottenham?
Tottenham have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Crystal Palace 33% BTTS, Tottenham 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 67% for Crystal Palace and 0% for Tottenham.
On the defensive side: Crystal Palace keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Tottenham in 100%; Crystal Palace have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crystal Palace home games / Tottenham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crystal Palace play Tottenham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Crystal Palace's recent matches and 0% of Tottenham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crystal Palace vs Tottenham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Crystal Palace's recent games and 0% of Tottenham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Crystal Palace run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Tottenham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crystal Palace beat Tottenham 3-0 at Selhurst Park, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crystal Palace 1.01 xG and Tottenham 0.92 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Crystal Palace beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Tottenham landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crystal Palace attack 0.78 / defence 1.02 against Tottenham attack 0.84 / defence 1.01, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crystal Palace 34% | Draw 36% | Tottenham 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Crystal Palace win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crystal Palace 67%, Tottenham 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 17%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crystal Palace's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Tottenham's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 100% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Tottenham arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.67. Form was overturned, with Crystal Palace winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Crystal Palace scored 3 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Tottenham managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.