🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Tottenham edge out Crystal Palace 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Tottenham beat Crystal Palace 0-1 at Selhurst Park, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Crystal Palace 1.33 xG and Tottenham 1.49 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Crystal Palace fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crystal Palace attack 0.80 / defence 1.03 against Tottenham attack 1.15 / defence 1.09, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Crystal Palace 34% | Draw 25% | Tottenham 41%, with Tottenham to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crystal Palace 47%, Tottenham 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Crystal Palace's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Tottenham's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Crystal Palace 1.44 PPG, Tottenham 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tottenham win broke the near-deadlock. Crystal Palace (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward. Tottenham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights