Crystal Palace 1-1 Newcastle – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Crystal Palace at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crystal Palace vs Newcastle encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Crystal Palace and Newcastle meet at Selhurst Park in Premier League, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 23 October 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Crystal Palace's overall Premier League record this term: 1W 5D 2L from 8 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L D D D. They are averaging 1.25 goals per game and conceding 1.62 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Crystal Palace, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Selhurst Park, Crystal Palace have gone 1W 3D 0L this season (4 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Selhurst Park. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Crystal Palace are significantly better at Selhurst Park than their overall form suggests.
Newcastle (all games): 0W 3D 5L across 8 Premier League outings this term — 0.38 points per game. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.25 per game is modest, conceding 2.38 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.38 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 88% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Newcastle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Newcastle's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 3L across 4 road games this term (0.25 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.62 in Crystal Palace's favour (1.00 vs 0.38) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
Crystal Palace — key trading statistics (8 games, 4 at home): BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Newcastle — key trading statistics (8 games, 4 at away): BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Crystal Palace 50% and Newcastle 88% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Crystal Palace 75% | Newcastle 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crystal Palace 1.75 xG and Newcastle 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crystal Palace attack 1.025 / defence 1.031 | Newcastle attack 0.701 / defence 1.498. League average goals — home 1.140 / away 1.210. Newcastle bring a strong defensive rating of 1.498 — this is suppressing Crystal Palace's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Crystal Palace games / 8 Newcastle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crystal Palace 58% | Draw 23% | Newcastle 19%. Fair-value odds: Crystal Palace 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | Newcastle 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Crystal Palace (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Crystal Palace are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: Crystal Palace 50% | Newcastle 75% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crystal Palace vs Newcastle | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Selhurst Park • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crystal Palace 58% | Draw 23% | Newcastle 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 48% | xG Crystal Palace 1.75 / Newcastle 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Crystal Palace attack 1.025 / def 1.031 | Newcastle attack 0.701 / def 1.498 | league avg home 1.140 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: Crystal Palace (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Crystal Palace xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Newcastle xG
48%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crystal Palace vs Newcastle kick off?
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Selhurst Park.
What was the final score in Crystal Palace vs Newcastle?
Crystal Palace 1 - 1 Newcastle.
Where is Crystal Palace vs Newcastle being played?
The match is being played at Selhurst Park.
What competition is Crystal Palace vs Newcastle part of?
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Crystal Palace vs Newcastle?
Our statistical model gives Crystal Palace a 58% chance of winning, Newcastle a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Crystal Palace the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crystal Palace vs Newcastle?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Crystal Palace and Newcastle will score (BTTS).
Will Crystal Palace vs Newcastle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crystal Palace and Newcastle?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Crystal Palace and Newcastle in?
Crystal Palace (all comps): 1W-5D-2L in 8 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.62 | L5 W-L-D-D-D. Newcastle (all comps): 0W-3D-5L in 8 | 0.38 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 2.38 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Crystal Palace's attack rating (1.02) and Newcastle's defence rating (1.50), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Newcastle's attack (0.70x) against Crystal Palace's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 2-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crystal Palace Win
58%
1.72
23%
4.28
19%
5.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Crystal Palace xG
Total xG
2.62
0.88
Newcastle xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
5.40
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
17%
5.75
Win to Nil
24%
4.13
3%
31.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.7 | 11.1 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.5 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crystal Palace vs Newcastle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Crystal Palace and Newcastle expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Crystal Palace and 0.88 for Newcastle, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Crystal Palace vs Newcastle?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Crystal Palace come into this having played 8 games, going 1W 5D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-D. The sample for Crystal Palace is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Newcastle sit at 0.38 PPG from 8 outings (0W 3D 5L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Newcastle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Crystal Palace carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Newcastle — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Crystal Palace's home form reads 1W 3D 0L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Crystal Palace are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Newcastle have taken 0.25 points per game from 4 outings (0W 1D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Crystal Palace come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Crystal Palace are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Newcastle are on 1.25 scored and 2.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Newcastle in 88%.
Last 8 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crystal Palace
Blended
Newcastle
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crystal Palace and Newcastle in coming into this match?
Crystal Palace have gone 1W 5D 2L in their last 8 games (1.00 PPG), while Newcastle have gone 0W 3D 5L in their last 8 (0.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crystal Palace at home or Newcastle away?
Crystal Palace's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crystal Palace at home: 1.50 PPG; Newcastle away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Newcastle won 5-0 on 16 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Crystal Palace have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Newcastle — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Crystal Palace
4
Draws
4
Newcastle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crystal Palace and Newcastle?
From 10 meetings on record, Crystal Palace have won 2, Newcastle have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Crystal Palace and Newcastle last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Crystal Palace 2-1 Newcastle.
Who has won more matches between Crystal Palace and Newcastle?
Newcastle have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crystal Palace 50%, Newcastle 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Crystal Palace) and 50% (Newcastle).
On the defensive side: Crystal Palace keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crystal Palace home games / Newcastle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crystal Palace play Newcastle?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Crystal Palace's games and 75% of Newcastle's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Crystal Palace vs Newcastle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Crystal Palace's recent games and 50% of Newcastle's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Crystal Palace and Newcastle share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Selhurst Park, Regular Season - 9, as Crystal Palace and Newcastle drew 1-1 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crystal Palace 1.75 xG and Newcastle 0.88 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crystal Palace attack 1.02 / defence 1.03 against Newcastle attack 0.70 / defence 1.50, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crystal Palace 58% | Draw 23% | Newcastle 19%, with Crystal Palace to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crystal Palace 75%, Newcastle 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crystal Palace's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Newcastle's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 88% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Crystal Palace arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.38. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Newcastle (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.