Crystal Palace vs Manchester City – Predictions
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Crystal Palace's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Manchester City's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. Flip it around — Manchester City's attack (1.01x) against Crystal Palace's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 0-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Manchester City Win
30%
3.31
32%
3.17
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Crystal Palace xG
Total xG
2.29
1.23
Manchester City xG
3.31
30%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
34%
2.90
Win to Nil
9%
11.32
13%
7.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 12.4 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crystal Palace vs Manchester City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Crystal Palace and Manchester City expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Crystal Palace and 1.23 for Manchester City, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Crystal Palace vs Manchester City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.