Crystal Palace 2-1 Leicester – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Leicester at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crystal Palace vs Leicester fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Crystal Palace and Leicester meet at Selhurst Park in Premier League, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 1 April 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Crystal Palace have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 0W 5D 5L. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Crystal Palace's home record at Selhurst Park: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Crystal Palace are significantly better at Selhurst Park than their overall form suggests.
Leicester's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Leicester, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Leicester have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.50 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Crystal Palace, 1 for Leicester and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Oct 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Crystal Palace half-time and goal-timing data (65 games, 33 at home): BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Leicester half-time and goal-timing data (65 games, 33 at away): BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crystal Palace 49% versus Leicester 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crystal Palace 45% | Leicester 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crystal Palace 1.02 xG and Leicester 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crystal Palace attack 0.625 / defence 0.971 | Leicester attack 1.059 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.120. Crystal Palace's attack strength of 0.625 is below the league average — the 1.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 66 Crystal Palace games / 65 Leicester games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crystal Palace 32% | Draw 29% | Leicester 39%. Fair-value odds: Crystal Palace 3.12 | Draw 3.45 | Leicester 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Leicester at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Leicester if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Crystal Palace 40% | Leicester 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crystal Palace vs Leicester | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Selhurst Park • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Apr 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crystal Palace 32% | Draw 29% | Leicester 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Crystal Palace 1.02 / Leicester 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Crystal Palace attack 0.625 / def 0.971 | Leicester attack 1.059 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.488 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Leicester (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Crystal Palace xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Leicester xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crystal Palace vs Leicester kick off?
Crystal Palace vs Leicester kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 1 April 2023 at Selhurst Park.
What was the final score in Crystal Palace vs Leicester?
Crystal Palace 2 - 1 Leicester.
Where is Crystal Palace vs Leicester being played?
The match is being played at Selhurst Park.
What competition is Crystal Palace vs Leicester part of?
Crystal Palace vs Leicester is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Crystal Palace vs Leicester?
Our statistical model gives Crystal Palace a 32% chance of winning, Leicester a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Leicester the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crystal Palace vs Leicester?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Crystal Palace and Leicester will score (BTTS).
Will Crystal Palace vs Leicester have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crystal Palace and Leicester?
Record (3 meetings): Crystal Palace 0W | Draws 2 | Leicester 1W.
What form are Crystal Palace and Leicester in?
Crystal Palace (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Leicester (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Crystal Palace's attack rating (0.62) and Leicester's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Leicester's attack (1.06x) against Crystal Palace's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 66/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Leicester Win
32%
3.12
29%
3.42
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Crystal Palace xG
Total xG
2.17
1.15
Leicester xG
3.12
32%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
36%
2.77
Win to Nil
10%
9.88
14%
7.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 13.1 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crystal Palace vs Leicester?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Crystal Palace and Leicester expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Crystal Palace and 1.15 for Leicester, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Crystal Palace vs Leicester?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 65 outings, Crystal Palace have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 17W 24D 24L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Leicester's form line: 21W 14D 30L from 65 games, 1.18 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D. The sample for Leicester is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Crystal Palace against 1.18 for Leicester. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Crystal Palace have posted 1.39 PPG from 33 outings (11W 13D 9L).
On the road, Leicester have gone 8W 7D 18L from 33 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Crystal Palace come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Crystal Palace are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Leicester are on 1.54 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Leicester in 60%.
Last 65 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crystal Palace
Current Season
Leicester
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crystal Palace and Leicester in coming into this match?
Crystal Palace have gone 17W 24D 24L in their last 65 games (1.15 PPG), while Leicester have gone 21W 14D 30L in their last 65 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crystal Palace at home or Leicester away?
Crystal Palace's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crystal Palace at home: 1.39 PPG; Leicester away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Crystal Palace have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Leicester — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Crystal Palace
3
Draws
1
Leicester
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crystal Palace and Leicester?
From 6 meetings on record, Crystal Palace have won 2, Leicester have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Crystal Palace and Leicester last play each other?
They last met on 15 January 2025, when Leicester 0-2 Crystal Palace.
Who has won more matches between Crystal Palace and Leicester?
Crystal Palace have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crystal Palace 48%, Leicester 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Crystal Palace) and 64% (Leicester).
On the defensive side: Crystal Palace keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Crystal Palace have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crystal Palace home games / Leicester away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crystal Palace play Leicester?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Crystal Palace's games and 73% of Leicester's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Crystal Palace vs Leicester usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Crystal Palace's recent games and 64% of Leicester's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Crystal Palace defy the odds to beat Leicester 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crystal Palace beat Leicester 2-1 at Selhurst Park, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crystal Palace 1.02 xG and Leicester 1.15 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Crystal Palace beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crystal Palace attack 0.62 / defence 0.97 against Leicester attack 1.06 / defence 1.10, drawn from 66/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crystal Palace 32% | Draw 29% | Leicester 39%, with Leicester to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Crystal Palace win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crystal Palace 45%, Leicester 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crystal Palace's trading profile (65 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Leicester's trading profile (65 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crystal Palace 1.15 PPG, Leicester 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crystal Palace win broke the near-deadlock. Crystal Palace (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.