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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Crystal Palace edge out Ipswich 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Crystal Palace beat Ipswich 1-0 at Selhurst Park, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Crystal Palace 1.94 xG and Ipswich 1.47 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Crystal Palace fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Ipswich landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crystal Palace attack 1.02 / defence 1.11 against Ipswich attack 0.88 / defence 1.28, drawn from 65/27 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Crystal Palace 49% | Draw 22% | Ipswich 29%, with Crystal Palace to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crystal Palace 51%, Ipswich 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Crystal Palace's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Ipswich's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Crystal Palace 1.31 PPG, Ipswich 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crystal Palace win broke the near-deadlock. Crystal Palace (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. Ipswich (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights