Crystal Palace 1-2 Everton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crystal Palace at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crystal Palace vs Everton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Crystal Palace host Everton at Selhurst Park in Premier League, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 15 February 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Crystal Palace have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Crystal Palace, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Selhurst Park this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Everton stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Everton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Crystal Palace have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Everton, who boast 4 victories compared to 0 for Crystal Palace.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2024, ended 1–2 with Everton winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Everton have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Crystal Palace in-play and half-time data (62 games, 30 at home): BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Everton in-play and half-time data (62 games, 30 at away): BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crystal Palace 58% versus Everton 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crystal Palace 50% | Everton 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crystal Palace 1.09 xG and Everton 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crystal Palace attack 0.850 / defence 1.079 | Everton attack 0.630 / defence 0.844. League average goals — home 1.514 / away 1.510. Data: 62 Crystal Palace games / 62 Everton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crystal Palace 35% | Draw 32% | Everton 32%. Fair-value odds: Crystal Palace 2.86 | Draw 3.12 | Everton 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Everton lead the H2H ledger, but Crystal Palace carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Crystal Palace are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crystal Palace offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.11 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Crystal Palace 60% | Everton 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crystal Palace vs Everton | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Selhurst Park • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Feb 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crystal Palace 35% | Draw 32% | Everton 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 44% | xG Crystal Palace 1.09 / Everton 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Crystal Palace attack 0.850 / def 1.079 | Everton attack 0.630 / def 0.844 | league avg home 1.514 / away 1.510 • Poisson stance: Crystal Palace (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Crystal Palace xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Everton xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crystal Palace vs Everton kick off?
Crystal Palace vs Everton kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 15 February 2025 at Selhurst Park.
What was the final score in Crystal Palace vs Everton?
Crystal Palace 1 - 2 Everton.
Where is Crystal Palace vs Everton being played?
The match is being played at Selhurst Park.
What competition is Crystal Palace vs Everton part of?
Crystal Palace vs Everton is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Crystal Palace vs Everton?
Our statistical model gives Crystal Palace a 35% chance of winning, Everton a 32% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Crystal Palace the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crystal Palace vs Everton?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Crystal Palace and Everton will score (BTTS).
Will Crystal Palace vs Everton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crystal Palace and Everton?
Record (6 meetings): Crystal Palace 0W | Draws 2 | Everton 4W.
What form are Crystal Palace and Everton in?
Crystal Palace (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Everton (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Crystal Palace's attack rating (0.85) and Everton's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Everton's attack versus Crystal Palace's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crystal Palace Win
35%
2.83
32%
3.10
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Crystal Palace xG
Total xG
2.11
1.03
Everton xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
13%
7.89
11%
9.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 12.4 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crystal Palace vs Everton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Crystal Palace and Everton expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Crystal Palace and 1.03 for Everton, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Crystal Palace vs Everton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 62 outings, Crystal Palace have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 20W 19D 23L record — D-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Crystal Palace is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Everton's form line: 19W 18D 25L from 62 games, 1.21 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-D. The sample for Everton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Crystal Palace on 1.27 PPG, Everton on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Crystal Palace have posted 1.30 PPG from 30 outings (10W 9D 11L).
On the road, Everton have gone 7W 9D 14L from 30 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Crystal Palace are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Everton are on 1.05 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Defensively: Everton in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crystal Palace
Blended
Everton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crystal Palace and Everton in coming into this match?
Crystal Palace have gone 20W 19D 23L in their last 62 games (1.27 PPG), while Everton have gone 19W 18D 25L in their last 62 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crystal Palace at home or Everton away?
Crystal Palace's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crystal Palace at home: 1.30 PPG; Everton away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Crystal Palace or Everton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crystal Palace have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Everton in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Crystal Palace and Everton runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Oct 2022, when Everton won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Crystal Palace's record when hosting Everton specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Crystal Palace
3
Draws
7
Everton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crystal Palace and Everton?
From 10 meetings on record, Crystal Palace have won 0, Everton have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Crystal Palace and Everton last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Everton 2-0 Crystal Palace.
Who has won more matches between Crystal Palace and Everton?
Everton have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crystal Palace 60%, Everton 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Crystal Palace) and 40% (Everton).
On the defensive side: Everton in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crystal Palace home games / Everton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crystal Palace play Everton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Crystal Palace's recent matches and 40% of Everton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crystal Palace vs Everton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Crystal Palace's recent games and 40% of Everton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Everton defy the odds to beat Crystal Palace 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton beat Crystal Palace 1-2 at Selhurst Park, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crystal Palace 1.09 xG and Everton 1.03 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Everton outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crystal Palace attack 0.85 / defence 1.08 against Everton attack 0.63 / defence 0.84, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crystal Palace 35% | Draw 32% | Everton 32%, with Crystal Palace to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Everton win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crystal Palace 50%, Everton 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crystal Palace's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Everton's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crystal Palace 1.27 PPG, Everton 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton win broke the near-deadlock. Everton (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.