🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stalemate at Crystal Palace's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Crystal Palace and Brighton finished level at 0-0 at Selhurst Park, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Crystal Palace 1.87 xG and Brighton 1.30 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Crystal Palace fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Brighton landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crystal Palace attack 1.03 / defence 0.96 against Brighton attack 1.16 / defence 1.18, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Crystal Palace 51% | Draw 23% | Brighton 27%, with Crystal Palace to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crystal Palace 46%, Brighton 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Crystal Palace's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Brighton's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Crystal Palace 1.44 PPG, Brighton 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Crystal Palace (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Brighton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.79 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.79 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights