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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Crystal Palace and Bournemouth share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Selhurst Park, Regular Season - 8, as Crystal Palace and Bournemouth drew 3-3 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Crystal Palace 1.47 xG and Bournemouth 1.26 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Crystal Palace beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bournemouth outscored their 1.26 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crystal Palace attack 0.92 / defence 0.91 against Bournemouth attack 1.17 / defence 1.12, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Crystal Palace 41% | Draw 27% | Bournemouth 32%, with Crystal Palace to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crystal Palace 47%, Bournemouth 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Crystal Palace's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Bournemouth's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Crystal Palace 1.44 PPG, Bournemouth 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Crystal Palace (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bournemouth (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.82 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights