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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Premier League · Regular Season - 32

Kick-off

Sun 12 Apr 2026

16:30

Venue

Stamford Bridge

Competition

Premier League

England

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Manchester City Win

32%

Chelsea

3.17

31%

Draw

3.28

38%

Manchester City

2.63

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.5%

Draw

Most likely

0 – 1

10.2%

Away win

1 – 0

9.2%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.23

Chelsea xG

Total xG

2.59

1.36

Manchester City xG

32%
31%
38%
ChelseaDrawManchester City

3.17

32%

Home win

3.28

31%

Draw

2.63

38%

Away win

Goals Markets

73%

Over 1.5

1.37

27%

Under 1.5

3.70

48%

Over 2.5

2.08

52%

Under 2.5

1.92

26%

Over 3.5

3.85

74%

Under 3.5

1.35

12%

Over 4.5

8.33

88%

Under 4.5

1.14

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

55%

BTTS Yes

1.83

45%

BTTS No

2.20

Clean Sheet

26%

Chelsea

3.91

29%

Manchester City

3.40

Win to Nil

8%

Chelsea

12.42

11%

Manchester City

8.96

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 7.5 10.2 7.0 3.2 1.1 0.3
1 9.2 12.5 8.6 3.9 1.3 0.4
2 5.6 7.7 5.2 2.4 0.8 0.2
3 2.3 3.1 2.1 1.0 0.3 0.1
4 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1
5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.225
λ Away (xG) 1.364
Total xG 2.589
League avg home goals 1.396
League avg away goals 1.242
Chelsea attack strength 1.003
Chelsea defence strength 1.015
Manchester City attack strength 1.082
Manchester City defence strength 0.875
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 69 / 68