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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Chelsea cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Liverpool.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chelsea beat Liverpool 3-1 at Stamford Bridge, Regular Season - 35, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chelsea 1.48 xG and Liverpool 1.45 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Chelsea beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chelsea attack 1.11 / defence 0.78 against Liverpool attack 1.33 / defence 0.91, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chelsea 38% | Draw 25% | Liverpool 37%, with Chelsea to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chelsea 65%, Liverpool 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chelsea's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Liverpool's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Liverpool arrived the stronger side — 2.28 PPG against 1.71. Form was overturned, with Chelsea winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Chelsea (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.08 average — above their attacking norm. Liverpool (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights