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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Chelsea edge out Everton 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chelsea beat Everton 1-0 at Stamford Bridge, Regular Season - 34, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chelsea 1.25 xG and Everton 0.86 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Everton landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chelsea attack 1.15 / defence 0.81 against Everton attack 0.74 / defence 0.75, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chelsea 46% | Draw 29% | Everton 25%, with Chelsea to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chelsea 66%, Everton 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chelsea's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Everton's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Chelsea arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.21. That form edge translated into the three points. Chelsea (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Everton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights