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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Brighton cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Chelsea.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Brighton beat Chelsea 1-3 at Stamford Bridge, Regular Season - 6, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chelsea 1.68 xG and Brighton 0.88 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Brighton outscored their 0.88 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chelsea attack 1.03 / defence 0.72 against Brighton attack 1.04 / defence 1.18, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chelsea 56% | Draw 25% | Brighton 19%, with Chelsea to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Brighton win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chelsea 56%, Brighton 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chelsea's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Brighton's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Chelsea 1.79 PPG, Brighton 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brighton win broke the near-deadlock. Chelsea (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Brighton (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.76 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights