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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Chelsea and Bournemouth share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stamford Bridge, Regular Season - 21, as Chelsea and Bournemouth drew 2-2 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chelsea 1.80 xG and Bournemouth 1.52 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chelsea attack 1.18 / defence 0.86 against Bournemouth attack 1.17 / defence 1.04, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chelsea 43% | Draw 27% | Bournemouth 31%, with Chelsea to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chelsea 66%, Bournemouth 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chelsea's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Bournemouth's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Chelsea 1.71 PPG, Bournemouth 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights