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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Burnley and Wolves share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Burnley and Wolves finished level at 1-1 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 38, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 1.37 xG and Wolves 0.99 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.73 / defence 1.30 against Wolves attack 0.62 / defence 1.28, drawn from 37/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Burnley 44% | Draw 30% | Wolves 26%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 41%, Wolves 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Burnley's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Wolves's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Burnley arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.81. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Wolves (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights