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West Ham cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Burnley.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

West Ham beat Burnley 0-2 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 1.37 xG and West Ham 1.49 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Burnley fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.78 / defence 1.25 against West Ham attack 0.95 / defence 1.18, drawn from 24/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Burnley 32% | Draw 31% | West Ham 37%, with West Ham to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 40%, West Ham 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Burnley's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

West Ham's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Burnley arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.02. Form was overturned, with West Ham winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Burnley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual. West Ham (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights