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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Burnley and Tottenham share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Burnley and Tottenham finished level at 2-2 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 1.10 xG and Tottenham 1.67 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Burnley beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.73 / defence 1.27 against Tottenham attack 1.09 / defence 1.01, drawn from 22/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Burnley 22% | Draw 30% | Tottenham 48%, with Tottenham to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 38%, Tottenham 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Burnley's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.

Tottenham's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Burnley arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Burnley (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights