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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Burnley and Nottingham Forest share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Burnley and Nottingham Forest finished level at 1-1 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 5, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 1.23 xG and Nottingham Forest 1.07 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.79 / defence 0.96 against Nottingham Forest attack 0.96 / defence 1.13, drawn from 4/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Burnley 40% | Draw 28% | Nottingham Forest 32%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 33%, Nottingham Forest 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Burnley's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 64% of the time, and conceded here.

Nottingham Forest's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Burnley arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.64. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights