Burnley 1-2 Nottingham Forest – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Nottingham Forest at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Burnley face Nottingham Forest.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Nottingham Forest travel to Turf Moor to take on Burnley in Premier League (matchday 38). The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 May 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Burnley have gone 2W 5D 3L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Burnley have posted 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Nottingham Forest stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Nottingham Forest have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Burnley) versus 0.90 (Nottingham Forest). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Burnley's games and 80% of Nottingham Forest's (from Burnley's last 10 home games and Nottingham Forest's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Burnley, 0 for Nottingham Forest and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Sep 2023, ended Burnley 1–1 Nottingham Forest — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Burnley trading profile (last 75 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Nottingham Forest trading profile (last 75 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 56% versus Nottingham Forest 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 59% | Nottingham Forest 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.30 xG and Nottingham Forest 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.652 / defence 1.356 | Nottingham Forest attack 0.833 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.501. Burnley's attack rating of 0.652 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.30. Burnley's defence rating of 1.356 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Nottingham Forest's projected output up. Data: built from Burnley's last 37 games and Nottingham Forest's last 75.
Result probabilities: Burnley 29% | Draw 25% | Nottingham Forest 46%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 3.48 | Draw 3.98 | Nottingham Forest 2.17. Nottingham Forest hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.30 / 1.70) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Nottingham Forest as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nottingham Forest offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Burnley's last 10 home games and Nottingham Forest's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Burnley 60% (last 10 home games) | Nottingham Forest 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Nottingham Forest | Competition: Premier League, matchday 38 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 29% | Draw 25% | Nottingham Forest 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Burnley 1.30 / Nottingham Forest 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.652 / def 1.356 | Nottingham Forest attack 0.833 / def 1.126 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.501 • Poisson stance: Nottingham Forest (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Nottingham Forest xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Burnley vs Nottingham Forest FAQs
What time does Burnley vs Nottingham Forest kick off?
Burnley vs Nottingham Forest kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 19 May 2024 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Nottingham Forest?
Burnley 1 - 2 Nottingham Forest.
Where is Burnley vs Nottingham Forest being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Nottingham Forest part of?
Burnley vs Nottingham Forest is a Premier League fixture (matchday 38) (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Nottingham Forest?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 29% chance of winning, Nottingham Forest a 46% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Nottingham Forest the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Nottingham Forest?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Burnley and Nottingham Forest will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Burnley vs Nottingham Forest have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Burnley's attack rating (0.65) and Nottingham Forest's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nottingham Forest's attack versus Burnley's defence, projects 1.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Burnley's last 37 games and Nottingham Forest's last 75 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Nottingham Forest Win
29%
3.48
25%
3.98
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Burnley xG
Total xG
3.00
1.70
Nottingham Forest xG
3.48
29%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
18%
5.45
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
5%
18.95
13%
7.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 8.5 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.0 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.2 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Burnley vs Nottingham Forest Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Nottingham Forest?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Burnley and Nottingham Forest expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Burnley and 1.70 for Nottingham Forest, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Nottingham Forest?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 75 outings, Burnley have picked up 1.49 PPG on a 31W 19D 25L record — D-W-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Nottingham Forest's form line: 17W 20D 38L from 75 games, 0.95 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-L.
Put side by side, Burnley are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nottingham Forest.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Burnley have posted 1.57 PPG from their last 37 home games (17W 7D 13L).
On the road, Nottingham Forest have gone 4W 9D 24L from their last 37 away games — 0.57 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Burnley come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Burnley are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Nottingham Forest are on 1.13 scored and 1.79 conceded.
Last 75 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Current Season
Nottingham Forest
Current Season
Burnley (Home) vs Nottingham Forest (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Burnley
Current Season
Nottingham Forest
Current Season
❓ Burnley vs Nottingham Forest Form FAQs
What form are Burnley and Nottingham Forest in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 31W 19D 25L in their last 75 games (1.49 PPG), while Nottingham Forest have gone 17W 20D 38L in their last 75 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Nottingham Forest away?
Burnley's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 1.57 PPG; Nottingham Forest away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2023. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 19 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 19 Apr 2026, when Nottingham Forest won Nottingham Forest 4-1 Burnley.
Burnley's record when hosting Nottingham Forest specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Burnley
2
Draws
2
Nottingham Forest
Recent Meetings
❓ Burnley vs Nottingham Forest H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Nottingham Forest?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Burnley have won 0, Nottingham Forest have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Nottingham Forest last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 April 2026: Nottingham Forest 4-1 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Nottingham Forest?
Nottingham Forest have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Nottingham Forest are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 49%, Nottingham Forest 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Burnley) and 54% (Nottingham Forest). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Burnley keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Nottingham Forest in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Nottingham Forest away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Burnley vs Nottingham Forest Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Burnley and Nottingham Forest matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Burnley's recent matches and 51% of Nottingham Forest's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Burnley and Nottingham Forest matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Burnley's matches and 54% of Nottingham Forest's.
Do Burnley and Nottingham Forest matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Burnley's recent matches and 76% of Nottingham Forest's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Nottingham Forest edge out Burnley 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nottingham Forest beat Burnley 1-2 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 38, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 1.30 xG and Nottingham Forest 1.70 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.65 / defence 1.36 against Nottingham Forest attack 0.83 / defence 1.13, drawn from 37/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 29% | Draw 25% | Nottingham Forest 46%, with Nottingham Forest to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 59%, Nottingham Forest 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Nottingham Forest's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Burnley arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 0.95. Form was overturned, with Nottingham Forest winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.84 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.16 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Premier League fixtures — matchday 38
All Premier League fixtures →
More UK football predictions →