Burnley 0-2 Manchester City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Manchester City at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Burnley vs Manchester City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Burnley and Manchester City meet at Turf Moor in Premier League, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Burnley's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Burnley's home record at Turf Moor: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Manchester City (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 2.30 points per game. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Manchester City have gone 8W 2D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Manchester City arrive in superior form — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Burnley, 1 for Manchester City and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2021, ended 0–2 with Manchester City winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Burnley — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at home): BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Manchester City — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at away): BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 44% versus Manchester City 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 37% | Manchester City 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 0.50 xG and Manchester City 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.613 / defence 1.111 | Manchester City attack 1.044 / defence 0.747. League average goals — home 1.100 / away 1.326. Burnley's attack strength of 0.613 is below the league average — the 0.50 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Manchester City's defence strength of 0.747 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 27 Burnley games / 29 Manchester City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 12% | Draw 25% | Manchester City 63%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 8.33 | Draw 4.00 | Manchester City 1.59. The model has a clear lean to Manchester City (63%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Burnley's lower xG of 0.50 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Manchester City are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 31%. Form rates corroborate: Burnley 30% | Manchester City 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Manchester City | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 12% | Draw 25% | Manchester City 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 31% | xG Burnley 0.50 / Manchester City 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.613 / def 1.111 | Manchester City attack 1.044 / def 0.747 | league avg home 1.100 / away 1.326 • Poisson stance: Manchester City (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.50
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Manchester City xG
31%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Manchester City kick off?
Burnley vs Manchester City kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Manchester City?
Burnley 0 - 2 Manchester City.
Where is Burnley vs Manchester City being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Manchester City part of?
Burnley vs Manchester City is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Manchester City?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 12% chance of winning, Manchester City a 63% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Manchester City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Manchester City?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Burnley and Manchester City will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Manchester City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Manchester City?
Record (1 meetings): Burnley 0W | Draws 0 | Manchester City 1W.
What form are Burnley and Manchester City in?
Burnley (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Manchester City (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Burnley's attack at 0.61x the league average against Manchester City's defence at 0.75x — combine the two and it projects 0.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Manchester City's attack (1.04x) against Burnley's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from 27/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 18.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (15.4%), 0-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Manchester City Win
12%
8.40
25%
3.98
63%
1.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
20.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
15.4%
Away win
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.50
Burnley xG
Total xG
2.04
1.54
Manchester City xG
8.40
12%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
1.59
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.22
69%
BTTS No
1.45
Clean Sheet
21%
4.66
60%
1.65
Win to Nil
3%
39.16
38%
2.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 20.0 | 15.4 | 7.9 | 3.0 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.0 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Manchester City?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.7%.
How many goals are Burnley and Manchester City expected to score?
The model projects 0.50 expected goals for Burnley and 1.54 for Manchester City, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Manchester City?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 27 outings, Burnley have picked up 0.78 PPG on a 3W 12D 12L record — W-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Manchester City's form line: 21W 4D 2L from 27 games, 2.48 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-D. The sample for Manchester City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Manchester City are the form team by 1.70 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Burnley.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Burnley have posted 0.92 PPG from 13 outings (2W 6D 5L).
On the road, Manchester City have gone 10W 3D 0L from 13 away games — 2.54 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Manchester City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Burnley are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Manchester City are on 2.33 scored and 0.63 conceded.
Defensively: Manchester City in 59% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Blended
Manchester City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Manchester City in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 3W 12D 12L in their last 27 games (0.78 PPG), while Manchester City have gone 21W 4D 2L in their last 27 (2.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Manchester City away?
Manchester City's away record (2.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 0.92 PPG; Manchester City away: 2.54 PPG.
Have Burnley or Manchester City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Manchester City in 59%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 22 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Manchester City have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Manchester City won 5-1 on 27 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burnley have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Manchester City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Burnley
0
Draws
6
Manchester City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Manchester City?
From 6 meetings on record, Burnley have won 0, Manchester City have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Manchester City last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2026, when Burnley 0-1 Manchester City.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Manchester City?
Manchester City have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 38%, Manchester City 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Burnley) and 54% (Manchester City).
On the defensive side: Burnley keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Manchester City in 54%; Burnley have failed to score in 54% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Manchester City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Manchester City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Burnley's recent matches and 46% of Manchester City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burnley vs Manchester City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Burnley's recent games and 54% of Manchester City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Manchester City cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Burnley.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Manchester City beat Burnley 0-2 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 31, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 0.50 xG and Manchester City 1.54 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.61 / defence 1.11 against Manchester City attack 1.04 / defence 0.75, drawn from 27/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 12% | Draw 25% | Manchester City 63%, with Manchester City to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 37%, Manchester City 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Manchester City's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Manchester City arrived the stronger side — 2.48 PPG against 0.78. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.