Burnley 1-1 Leeds – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Burnley at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Burnley vs Leeds fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Burnley host Leeds at Turf Moor in Premier League, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 29 August 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Burnley have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 outings — a 0.00 PPG return. Last five: L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Burnley have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Leeds — All Games: 0W 1D 1L from 2 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 3.50. Conceding 3.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Leeds have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. Leeds's 0.50 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Burnley's 0.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.83 xG and Leeds 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.887 / defence 1.264 | Leeds attack 0.840 / defence 1.526. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.101. Leeds bring a strong defensive rating of 1.526 — this is suppressing Burnley's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 Burnley games / 2 Leeds games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Burnley 50% | Draw 28% | Leeds 22%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Leeds 4.55. Burnley hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Burnley at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Leeds (0.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Burnley offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Leeds | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Aug 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 50% | Draw 28% | Leeds 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Burnley 1.83 / Leeds 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.887 / def 1.264 | Leeds attack 0.840 / def 1.526 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Burnley (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Leeds xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Leeds kick off?
Burnley vs Leeds kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 29 August 2021 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Leeds?
Burnley 1 - 1 Leeds.
Where is Burnley vs Leeds being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Leeds part of?
Burnley vs Leeds is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Leeds?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 50% chance of winning, Leeds a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Burnley the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Leeds?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Burnley and Leeds will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Leeds have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Leeds?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Burnley and Leeds in?
Burnley (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L. Leeds (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 3.50 | L5 L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Burnley's attack at 0.89x the league average against Leeds's defence at 1.53x — combine the two and it projects 1.83 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Leeds's attack versus Burnley's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burnley Win
50%
1.99
28%
3.54
22%
4.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Burnley xG
Total xG
3.00
1.17
Leeds xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
4.62
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
16%
6.23
Win to Nil
16%
6.43
3%
28.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 10.7 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Leeds?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Burnley and Leeds expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Burnley and 1.17 for Leeds, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Leeds?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Burnley's recent record stands at 0W 0D 2L from 2 games, a 0.00 PPG return, with L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Burnley, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Leeds, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 1L across 2 games — 0.50 PPG, with L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Leeds, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Leeds by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Burnley heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Burnley are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Leeds are on 1.50 scored and 3.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Leeds in 100%.
Last 2 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Early Season
Leeds
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Leeds in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 games (0.00 PPG), while Leeds have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Premier League, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Burnley's record when hosting Leeds specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Burnley
2
Draws
2
Leeds
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Leeds?
From 6 meetings on record, Burnley have won 2, Leeds have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Leeds last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Leeds 3-1 Burnley.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Leeds away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Leeds?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Burnley's games and 100% of Leeds's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Burnley vs Leeds usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Burnley's matches and 100% of Leeds's.
Burnley and Leeds share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burnley and Leeds finished level at 1-1 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 1.83 xG and Leeds 1.17 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Burnley fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.89 / defence 1.26 against Leeds attack 0.84 / defence 1.53, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 50% | Draw 28% | Leeds 22%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 50%, Leeds 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Leeds arrived the stronger side — 0.50 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Burnley conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Leeds conceded 1 against a 3.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.