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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Burnley cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Leeds.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Burnley beat Leeds 2-0 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 8, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 1.37 xG and Leeds 1.04 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Leeds landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.77 / defence 1.01 against Leeds attack 0.87 / defence 1.25, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Burnley 44% | Draw 29% | Leeds 28%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 36%, Leeds 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Burnley's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and duly kept one.

Leeds's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Burnley 1.96 PPG, Leeds 2.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burnley win broke the near-deadlock. Leeds (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights