Burnley 1-2 Brighton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Burnley at 77%, yet other data sources diverge — this Burnley vs Brighton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 1 as Burnley welcome Brighton to Turf Moor. Kick-off is set for Saturday 14 August 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 2.33 xG and Brighton 0.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Brighton attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 2.389 / away 0.509. Data: 0 Burnley games / 0 Brighton games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Burnley 77% | Draw 19% | Brighton 4%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 1.30 | Draw 5.26 | Brighton 25.00. The model has a clear lean to Burnley (77%) — a 73pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Burnley at 77% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Brighton | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Aug 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 77% | Draw 19% | Brighton 4% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 37% | xG Burnley 2.33 / Brighton 0.50 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Brighton attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 2.389 / away 0.509 • Poisson stance: Burnley (77%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.33
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
0.50
Brighton xG
37%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Brighton kick off?
Burnley vs Brighton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 14 August 2021 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Brighton?
Burnley 1 - 2 Brighton.
Where is Burnley vs Brighton being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Brighton part of?
Burnley vs Brighton is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Brighton?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 77% chance of winning, Brighton a 4% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Burnley the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Brighton?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Burnley and Brighton will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Brighton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Brighton?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Burnley and Brighton in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Burnley's attack rating (0.85) and Brighton's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 2.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Brighton's attack versus Burnley's defence, projects 0.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 3-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burnley Win
77%
1.30
19%
5.24
4%
23.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
3 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.33
Burnley xG
Total xG
2.83
0.50
Brighton xG
1.30
77%
Home win
5.24
19%
Draw
23.92
4%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.67
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
61%
1.65
10%
10.33
Win to Nil
47%
2.14
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 6.8 | 1.7 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 2 | 16.0 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 12.5 | 6.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Brighton?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Burnley and Brighton expected to score?
The model projects 2.33 expected goals for Burnley and 0.50 for Brighton, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Brighton?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 77%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Pre-Season
Brighton
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Brighton have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Feb 2022, when Burnley won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Burnley's record when hosting Brighton specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Burnley
2
Draws
3
Brighton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Brighton?
From 6 meetings on record, Burnley have won 1, Brighton have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Brighton last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Burnley 0-2 Brighton.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Brighton?
Brighton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Brighton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Brighton defy the odds to beat Burnley 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brighton beat Burnley 1-2 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 1, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 2.33 xG and Brighton 0.50 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Burnley fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Brighton outscored their 0.50 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Brighton attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 77% | Draw 19% | Brighton 4%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 77%. Instead the game produced a Brighton win, an outcome the model had rated at just 4% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.