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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Premier League · Regular Season - 32

Kick-off

Sat 11 Apr 2026

15:00

Venue

Turf Moor

Competition

Premier League

England

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Brighton Win

21%

Burnley

4.75

30%

Draw

3.36

49%

Brighton

2.03

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

0 – 1

12.8%

Away win

Most likely

1 – 1

12.1%

Draw

0 – 2

9.9%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

0.94

Burnley xG

Total xG

2.49

1.54

Brighton xG

21%
30%
49%
BurnleyDrawBrighton

4.75

21%

Home win

3.36

30%

Draw

2.03

49%

Away win

Goals Markets

71%

Over 1.5

1.41

29%

Under 1.5

3.45

45%

Over 2.5

2.22

55%

Under 2.5

1.82

24%

Over 3.5

4.17

76%

Under 3.5

1.32

11%

Over 4.5

9.09

89%

Under 4.5

1.12

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

50%

BTTS Yes

2.00

50%

BTTS No

2.00

Clean Sheet

21%

Burnley

4.68

39%

Brighton

2.57

Win to Nil

4%

Burnley

22.26

19%

Brighton

5.22

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 8.3 12.8 9.9 5.1 2.0 0.6
1 7.8 12.1 9.3 4.8 1.9 0.6
2 3.7 5.7 4.4 2.3 0.9 0.3
3 1.2 1.8 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1
4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1
5 0.1 0.1 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 0.944
λ Away (xG) 1.544
Total xG 2.488
League avg home goals 1.391
League avg away goals 1.253
Burnley attack strength 0.788
Burnley defence strength 1.273
Brighton attack strength 0.968
Brighton defence strength 0.862
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 31 / 69