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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Brighton and West Ham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Amex Stadium, Regular Season - 15, as Brighton and West Ham drew 1-1 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Brighton 1.86 xG and West Ham 1.46 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Brighton fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brighton attack 1.23 / defence 1.15 against West Ham attack 1.00 / defence 0.97, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Brighton 47% | Draw 23% | West Ham 30%, with Brighton to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brighton 69%, West Ham 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Brighton's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

West Ham's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Brighton arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights