🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Brighton edge out Newcastle 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Brighton beat Newcastle 2-1 at Amex Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Brighton 1.13 xG and Newcastle 0.93 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Brighton beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brighton attack 1.13 / defence 1.05 against Newcastle attack 0.74 / defence 0.70, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Brighton 39% | Draw 32% | Newcastle 29%, with Brighton to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brighton 69%, Newcastle 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Brighton's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.

Newcastle's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Brighton 1.56 PPG, Newcastle 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brighton win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights